Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella admits that "AI Is Generating Basically No Value"

 In a recent interview with Dwarkesh Podcast, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella expressed skepticism about the hype surrounding AI, stating that generative AI has not yet produced significant real-world economic value. In the interview Satya Nadella talks about:

  • Why he doesn’t believe in AGI but does believe in 10% economic growth 
  • Microsoft’s new topological qubit breakthrough and gaming world models 
  • Whether Office commoditizes LLMs or the other way around,

In this widely quoted interview, Nadella says 

The way I come at it, Dwarkesh, it's a great question because at some level, if you're going to have this explosion, abundance, whatever, commodity of intelligence available, the first thing we have to observe is GDP growth.

This is where we get a little bit ahead of ourselves with all this AGI hype. Remember the developed world, which is what? 2% growth and if you adjust for inflation it’s zero?

So in 2025, as we sit here, I'm not an economist, at least I look at it and say we have a real growth challenge. So, the first thing that we all have to do is, when we say this is like the Industrial Revolution, let's have that Industrial Revolution type of growth.

That means to me, 10%, 7%, developed world, inflation-adjusted, growing at 5%. That's the real marker. It can't just be supply-side.

In fact that’s the thing, a lot of people are writing about it, and I'm glad they are, which is the big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity that, by the way, is abundant. Suddenly productivity goes up and the economy is growing at a faster rate. When that happens, we'll be fine as an industry.



In the interview Nadella criticized the focus on artificial general intelligence (AGI) milestones, arguing that the true measure of AI's impact would be noticeable economic growth, similar to the Industrial Revolution. Despite Microsoft's significant investments in OpenAI, Nadella urged for a more rational evaluation of AI's success, focusing on productivity and tangible economic benefits.



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